Signal Detected From Missing EgyptAir A320

Searchers aboard a French naval vessel said this morning they believe they have found a signal from one of the data recorders aboard EgyptAir Flight 804, which crashed into the Mediterranean on May 19. The Airbus A320 vanished from radar during a flight from Paris to Cairo, with 66 people on board. Recovery teams have found some floating debris from the aircraft, but the search is made difficult by the depth of the sea in the area — averaging nearly 12,000 feet — strong currents, and the ruggedness of the sea floor. Another research vessel, the John Lethbridge, based in Mauritius, is expected to join the search team in the next week or so, and it will be able to retrieve the recorders if they are found, officials said. The recorders are designed to emit signals for 30 days after a crash.

An Airbus engineer told Reuters the company is working to develop ejectable or "deployable" recorders that would separate from the tail during a crash and float, emitting a distress signal. Similar technology already is used in some military aircraft, but some in the industry have expressed doubts about their safe use on civil airliners, according to Reuters, saying they could be deployed accidentally and introduce new risks. Airbus said last year it was talking to regulators about adding deployable devices to some of its jets. New European rules set to take effect in 2018 will extend the duration of the pingers in the data recorders to 90 days. Airlines also will be required to track flight positions during ocean crossings.

Solar Impulse Next Stop: New York

As soon as the weather window looks favorable, Solar Impulse pilot Andre Borschberg plans to depart from Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania, and fly about 100 miles to New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport, according to the support team. The flight path will provide several opportunities along the way for New Yorkers to catch a glimpse of the unique solar-powered aircraft. The plan is for Solar Impulse to cross over the Verrazano Bridge at an altitude of 1,500 feet, at about 5:10 a.m. on the day of the flight. The airplane will then fly over the Statue of Liberty and continue east above Brooklyn on its way to JFK. Liberty State Park, in New Jersey, Battery Park in Manhattan, and several other sites along the coast will provide views of the flight, according to the Solar Impulse team.

After the landing in JFK, pilot Bertrand Piccard will fly the next leg, across the Atlantic, when the weather provides an adequate window. Since crossing the Pacific and landing in California, the airplane has landed in Phoenix, Tulsa, and Dayton. The global flight began more than a year ago, in Abu Dhabi, and the team plans to return there later this summer. New Yorkers who want to see the airplane can sign up online to get advance notice of the takeoff.

financial outlook for global air transport-IATA

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) revised its 2016 financial outlook for global air transport industry profits upwards to $39.4 billion (from $36.3 bn last December). It will be generated on revenues of $709 billion for an aggregate net profit margin of 5.6%.

Main Forecast Drivers:

Oil Prices: The outlook is based on oil averaging $45/barrel (Brent) over the course of the year which is significantly lower than the $53.9 average price in 2015. Overall, fuel is expected to represent 19.7% of the industry’s expenses, down from a recent high of 33.1% in 2012-2013.

The Global Economy: Weak economic conditions prevail. GDP is expected to expand by 2.3% in 2016. That is down from 2.4% in 2015 and the weakest growth since 2008 when the global financial crisis hit. 

Passenger Demand: Passenger demand is robust with 6.2% growth expected in 2016. That is, however, a slowdown from the 7.4% growth recorded in 2015. Capacity is expected to grow slightly ahead of demand at 6.8%. Load factors are expected to remain high (80.0%), but with a slight slip from 2015 (80.4%). 

Cargo: The cargo side of the business remains in the doldrums with 2.1% growth in demand. Overall cargo is expected to generate $49.6 billion in revenues, down from $52.8 billion in 2015.

“Lower oil prices are certainly helping—though tempered by hedging and exchange rates. Performance, however, is being bolstered by the hard work of airlines. Load factors are at record levels. New value streams are increasing ancillary revenues,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s CEO.

Regional Diversity:North American carriers are expected have a net profit of $22.9 billion which is an improvement on the $21.5 billion reported for 2015. Passenger capacity is expected to expand by 4.3% in 2016, marginally outpacing an anticipated 4.0% increase in demand, but load factors are forecast to remain well above break-even levels.European airlines are expected to post a $7.5 billion profit in 2016 (up from $7.4 billion in 2015). Passenger capacity is forecast to grow by 5.8%, ahead of expected demand growth of 4.9%. Terror incidents have had a dampening effect on demand in some key tourist centers.Airlines in Asia-Pacific are expected to post a $7.8 billion profit in 2016, up from $7.2 billion in 2015. Capacity is forecast to expand by 9.1% in 2016, ahead of demand which is likely to grow by 8.5%. Asia-Pacific carriers have a 40% share of global air cargo markets. .Middle East carriers are expected to post a $1.6 billion profit, up slightly on the $1.4 billion reported for 2015. Capacity is forecast to grow at 12.2%, outpacing an expected 11.2% expansion of demand. Airlines in Latin America are expected to see a $100 million profit in 2016 after a $1.5 billion loss in 2015. Demand is expected to grow by 4.2% while carriers are forecast to add 3.7% to capacity. The region has been hit disproportionately by the fall in commodity prices and revenues, which led to foreign exchange crises to add to the economic difficulties.African airlines are expected to post a $500 million loss in 2016, a slight improvement on the $700 million that the region’s carriers lost in 2015. Capacity growth (5.3%) is anticipated to outpace demand growth of 4.5%. Carriers in the region continue to confront a plethora of challenges including intense competition on long-haul routes, political barriers to growing intra-Africa traffic, high costs and infrastructure deficiencies.  European airlines are expected to post a $7.5 billion profit in 2016 (up from $7.4 billion in 2015). Passenger capacity is forecast to grow by 5.8%, ahead of expected demand growth of 4.9%. Terror incidents have had a dampening effect on demand in some key tourist centers.Airlines in Asia-Pacific are expected to post a $7.8 billion profit in 2016, up from $7.2 billion in 2015. Capacity is forecast to expand by 9.1% in 2016, ahead of demand which is likely to grow by 8.5%. Asia-Pacific carriers have a 40% share of global air cargo markets. .Middle East carriers are expected to post a $1.6 billion profit, up slightly on the $1.4 billion reported for 2015. Capacity is forecast to grow at 12.2%, outpacing an expected 11.2% expansion of demand. Airlines in Latin America are expected to see a $100 million profit in 2016 after a $1.5 billion loss in 2015. Demand is expected to grow by 4.2% while carriers are forecast to add 3.7% to capacity. The region has been hit disproportionately by the fall in commodity prices and revenues, which led to foreign exchange crises to add to the economic difficulties.African airlines are expected to post a $500 million loss in 2016, a slight improvement on the $700 million that the region’s carriers lost in 2015. Capacity growth (5.3%) is anticipated to outpace demand growth of 4.5%. Carriers in the region continue to confront a plethora of challenges including intense competition on long-haul routes, political barriers to growing intra-Africa traffic, high costs and infrastructure deficiencies.  

EgyptAir's A320 made 3 emergency landings before its last flight

EgyptAir's Airbus A320, that crashed into the Mediterranean Sea in May, was forced to make at least 3 emergency landings 24-hours prior to its last journey, the French media reported. Aircraft's warning systems signaled a malfunction on board after the take-off on three several occasions. The alert messages were investigated every time but the plane was cleared to take off.

Routine maintenance checks were performed on the plane before the final flight from Paris to Cairo, officials told CNN.

Former aviation security official, Jean-Paul Troadec, commented on the alerts: “These new findings are an important element for the investigators. We cannot presume to know exactly what happened on board but it’s not entirely normal to turn around several times after a technical incident without finding anything.”

In the meantime, the hunt for the plane’s black boxes received a boost. The French vessel Laplace has detected signals in the Mediterranean Sea, that are assumed to be sent from the black boxes from the EgyptAir's A320 aircraft, according to France’s air accident investigation agency BEA.

The French naval forces are waiting for the second vessel to arrive to the wreckage search area that has been narrowed down to 5 km, in order to take pictures and retrieve the objects from the bottom of the sea. 

Egypt’s armed forces are racing against time along with support from France, Greece, the U.S and the U.K. to find the aircraft's black boxes as they send a transmission signal only for 30 days - until their batteries run out of power. From a maximum depth of 4,200 meters they send a signal from an underwater locator beacon that is activated as soon as it comes into contact with water.

Airbus senior engineer commented that the crash has strengthened the case for black boxes, that could eject from the tail of the aircraft before the accident removing the need for similar searches altogether. “If we have a deployable recorder it will be much easier to find,” said Charles Champion, Airbus Executive Vice-President for Engineering.

The idea was highly recommended before the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370 two years ago. Ejectable black boxes are used in the military, but some industry experts are critical about their implementation on commercial planes as they could pop out by accident and introduce new risks. 

The cause of the crash remains a mystery and the finding of the black boxes is crucial for putting together the puzzle of the last moments of the EgyptAir's flight.