Aeromobil Flying Car Crashed, Pilot OK

During a test flight on Friday, Aeromobil's flying-car prototype crashed, after the pilot, designer Stefan Klein, pulled the parachute. Klein suffered no injuries, according to Aeromobil's statement, and the airplane was "only partially damaged." News photos show the aircraft apparently mostly intact, with some damage to the fuselage. 

"Experience and data from the test flight will be evaluated and implemented in further development of the flying car," the company said. According to news reports, Klein, 54, was taken to a hospital for examination after complaining of back pain, but was later released. The company has been flight-testing the aircraft since last October.

No other details about the flight test or the condition of the airplane have been made available.

Airbus forecasts Australia South Pacific fleet to double by 2033

The passenger aircraft fleet serving the Australia South Pacific region will grow from some 700 aircraft today to over 1,200 by 2033, with a doubling in the number of widebody aircraft. With aviation growth comparable with other mature markets such as North America and Europe, the region has the world’s highest propensity to travel per capita.

Airbus’ Global Market Forecast (GMF) shows international traffic serving the Australia South Pacific region will grow annually at 4.5%. Traffic to and from neighbouring developing markets will grow even quicker with traffic to Asia growing at 5.1%, Latin America 6.2%, Africa 6.3% and the Middle East 5.4%, which are all well above the world average (4.7%)

While the fleet serving the region will increase by 70%, widebody aircraft will more than double from some 290 today to over 640 by 2033. In 20 years, the passenger fleet serving the region will increase by nearly 500 aircraft (146 single aisles like the A320 and A320neo and 353 wide-bodies from 250 to over 500 seats such as the A330, A330neo, A350 XWB and the A380). The region’s propensity to travel (over three trips per capita) is almost double that of North America and it will remain the world’s highest at over four trips per capita by 2033. Domestically, traffic to and from Australia’s busiest airports, (Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth) is set to double with an additional ~90 million passengers a year by 2033.

Today, some 70% of international traffic is within the wider Asia Pacific region including China (PRC) and this is set to grow as it becomes home to 40% of the world’s GDP by 2033. The PRC is Australia’s single biggest export market and increased air links will fuel business and tourism between the two. Today, Chinese travellers indicate Australia among their top destinations. Forecasts for Australian inbound tourism generally suggest nearly 10 million visitors a year by 2022. Today, 99.7% of these tourists arrive by air, and in the future will increasingly arrive on aircraft like the A330neo and for denser routes the A350 XWB and A380.

By 2033, the number of aviation mega-cities globally will double to 91. Today’s mega cities of Sydney and Melbourne will be joined by Perth, Brisbane and Auckland by 2033. These 91 centres of wealth will account for 35% of global GDP and will be served by high capacity aircraft like the A380, with some 95% of all long haul traffic travelling to from or through them.

Air transportation makes it possible to travel the region’s vast distances and helps connectivity at a global and country level providing economic benefits. In the last 10 years, Australia’s domestic traffic increased by nearly 90% for example, with a positive trend forecast to continue.

Globally, in the next 20 years (2014-2033), according to Airbus’ Global Market Forecast, passenger traffic will grow annually at 4.7% driving a need for around 31,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft (100 seats and above) worth US$4.6 trillion. The passenger and freighter fleet will increase from today’s 18,500 aircraft to 37,500 by 2033, an increase of nearly 19,000 aircraft. Some 12,400 older less fuel efficient passenger and freighter aircraft will be retired.

Start-up airlines – how should “new-born” carriers structure their fleets?

In February 2015 a French start-up airline La Compagnie announced its plans to add a second route from Europe to the USA. In contrast to both traditional low cost and legacy airlines, the carrier aims to strengthen its position in a specific niche market of low-cost all-business class transatlantic flights. While La Compagnie’s business model still has to stand the test of time, it also reflects that the post-crisis air transport industry is regaining the trust of entrepreneurs who see new opportunities in the already rather tight market. However, the limited initial capital (and creditworthiness) turns start-up airlines into a risky customer in the eyes of many financial institutions. With this in mind, a newly built or mid-life aircraft, leasing or owning – which is the best option for a “new-born” airline?

Over the past five years approx. a hundred of new start-up carriers have been emerging annually worldwide. According to AeroTransport Data Bank, in 2013 alone over 130 new airlines were announced to launch flights. Though the same year approx. 55 carriers in various world regions ceased their operations, still the figures clearly indicate that the industry is steadily gaining back its self-confidence.

“There is no universal reason why the number of new market entrants is on the rise apart from the general growth of the global economy and the appetite for the projected demand which is to top 4 billion passengers by the end of the decade,” shares Tadas Goberis, the CEO of AviaAM Leasing. “Some legacy carriers have decided to enter the low cost segment or a new region, while some businesses have taken the risk of re-launching the brands which ceased operation during the crisis or to explore a specific niche market. In either case, the majority of new entrants mostly tend to focus on regional destinations thus supporting the demand for regional or narrow body aircraft.”

Today’s jet fuel prices are in their five-year lowest and thus are certainly in favour of start-ups. The opportunity to lower fuel expenses (which account for approx. 30% of all costs) is essential for new players in their quest for building brand awareness and biting off their portion of passengers from the established market players.

“From an operational point of view, a newly build aircraft would allow a start-up to save on its maintenance as even during the post-warranty period it naturally requires less MRO servicing. But it will cost a carrier three times as much as a first-line aircraft would. Left alone the delivery slots availability. Though manufacturers’ production lines are on their record high, still it may take up to 3 years for an order to be executed,” comments Tadas Goberis. “Meanwhile, leasing companies receive new aircraft each year meaning that they can either resell or, most likely, lease the aircraft. But the price will still be too high for many start-ups. The same goes for other “young” aircraft (up to 5 years old) as the demand for them is particularly high from both new and established carriers.” 

Lower fuel prices have also triggered a short-term increase in the demand (and thus supply) of “older” aircraft by slightly shifting their edge of retirement or re-introducing already parked ones. Considering that an average market price for a Boeing 737 classic is around USD2-3 million, this might be a cheap temporary option for some new carriers seeking to start their operations fast. However, a smarter strategic decision would be to invest into more effective aircraft types which, despite higher initial price, in a long-term perspective  cost way less to operate and maintain,  for example, a first-line Boeing 737NG or an Airbus A320 with an approx. USD15 million price tag.

In the meantime, the supply in the secondary aircraft market is on the rise. Today the average fleet age of an Asian Pacific top carriers is slightly above 6.3 years (36% younger than the fleet of their rivals in Europe), and the airlines intend to keep the fleet young with new deliveries. In fact, the region corresponds to the world’s largest aircraft backlog (over 3 500, according to CAPA). With the deliveries of new aircraft, Asian carriers (once the main operators of used aircraft) are eager to get rid of the 10+ years old first-line airplanes. Therefore, it is safe to forecast the secondary market will receive an extra injection of mid-life assets thus potentially pushing the prices down.

 “Asia is a specific market where one may find it a real challenge to sell a 10 years’ old aircraft. The trend is also supported by the local authorities who keep the age bar for imported aircraft at 12 years or so. But start-ups in the Old World, or Latin America and Africa – they don’t mind first-line planes as long as they are leased or sold for a reasonable price. But there is a catch,” comments Tadas Goberis, the CEO of AviaAM Leasing. ”The actual number of aircraft available in the secondary market is way larger than the one publicly advertised. Moreover, many potential sellers don’t even consider selling their aircraft until you come at a right place and time and offer a deal. 

But then there is another issue – if one’s brand or top management doesn’t have a name in a specific region, the carrier will most likely end up with options in the on-market only. In other words, whether a start-up considers buying or leasing an aircraft, it still needs the support of established market players which will be able to locate off-market options, structure the deal as well as its financing and eventually allow new market entrants to save several millions of dollars on fleet formation.”

Americal Airlines fligths grounded by iPad error

American Airlines planes were temporarily affected by the iPad app glitch. An app containing crucial manuals and flight plans which were previously published in a paper format unexpectedly crashed, causing dozens of American Airlines flights to be delayed. 

The error affected multiple planes across the airline's fleet. Airline spokeswoman Andrea Huguely said pilots were having to delete and reinstall the map app. She said 24 flights were delayed on Tuesday night and about 30 on Wednesday.

American Airlines said the app's problem was related to the cellular data connection, and that planes had to return to the gate to access a Wi-Fi connection to resolve the problem.

When the change to virtual manuals was first made, American Airlines said the move helped saved 400,000 gallons of fuel annually due to the decreased weight.

The glitch occurs days after the FBI issued an alert about passengers using the onboard Wi-Fi to bother the flight systems, although there has not been any official suggestion of external interference.

American Airlines is not the only carrier whose pilots and cabin crew have switched from using physical charts and paper manuals to tablets. United Airlines was also an early adopter of iPads, while Delta has opted for Microsoft's Surface tablets instead. British Airways and Ryanair are among others still in the process of shifting to so-called Electronic Flight Bag-based systems.

In addition to saving on fuel costs, it is also suggested that such kit reduces flight preparation time, reduces the likelihood of injuries and helps staff by offering real-time updates.

Depression – should it be a career ending diagnose for pilots?

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) classifies depression as a "mental abnormality" and states that in order to receive a medical certificate, a pilot should have no medical or clinical records of suffering from such an abnormality. However, if you ban some pilots from flying while they are receiving treatment for depression, then doesn’t this mean that you discourage them from seeking professional help? In other words, is it worse to have a pilot flying whilst suffering from an untreated depression as opposed to the one whose psychological problems are being addressed professionally?

One of the most recent studies of aircraft assisted suicides in the United States has found that in a 20-year period (1993–2012) the proportion of general aviation suicides in relation to the total number of fatal aviation accidents is 0.33%. However, the study has also revealed that only 22% of all individuals committing suicide communicate such an intention during their last appointment with a health professional. The reality is that the process of reliably detecting psychological problems, particularly at the early stages, if the patient does not cooperate, is extremely difficult. On top of that, pilots, probably more than any other professionals, may find themselves under pressure to conceal the problem as the diagnosis could easily become the ending point in their careers.

The impact of SSRIs...

The treatment for depression often involves taking an antidepressant. Although the type of drugs approved by the aeromedical regulatory authorities for the use by pilots varies from country to country, the most prevalent avenue for the treatment of depression is the course of Selective Serotonin Reuptake-Inhibitors (SSRIs); however, due to adverse reactions, SSRIs have been widely criticized by many members of the aerospace medical community in terms of their effects on psychomotor performance.

In the meantime, multiple post-mortem samples from pilots involved in fatal civil aircraft accidents in the United States during 1990–2001 revealed that out of 4,184 fatal civil aviation accidents, as many as 61 plane was piloted by a professional taking SSRIs. As determined by the National Transportation Safety Board, the use of an SSRI has been a contributing factor in at least nine (0.02%) of the 4,184 accidents. However, it is noteworthy that other factors, such as the weather conditions, mechanical deficiencies, and/or piloting errors, could not be completely ruled out in the aforementioned 61 cases.

 .and other drugs used among pilots

Additionally, another notable study conducted by the FAA Civil Aerospace Medical Institute and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) revealed that out of 1353 pilots involved in fatal accidents during 2004-2008, as many as 92 (or 7%) were found to have ethanol (alcohol) present in their systems. Moreover, 28 (2%) of them tested positive for marijuana and 9 (0.7%) - for cocaine.

Meanwhile, multiple studies indicate that the percentage of drug users amongst pilots has remained relatively constant over the past 20 years (around 0.02%). However, the percentage of alcohol, cocaine and marijuana users is much higher amongst pilots treated with SSRIs.

Considering the aforementioned statistics, the currently used pilot health screening system is clearly far from perfect.

The choice is ours

If the reaction to the latest catastrophe in the Alps is to immediately assume that all pilots, with or without a history of mental illness, cannot be trusted on their own, it will do a great disservice to all pilots and will certainly dissuade those who suspect having mood swings or depression from seeking help.

“As far as I know, airline pilots don't regularly have their mental health assessed. There are pilots with history of depression who have flown safely for decades. No destructive behavior can be directly linked to mental illness, as multiple studies have shown. Just as in hospital practice, pilots with alcohol problems should know they may count on receiving help, get appropriate treatment and return to their normal and happy life. Pilots dealing with stress and anxiety should know that too,” shares a psychologist familiar with aviation. “The main issue does not even lie with psychology specialists or pilots themselves. Instead, it is rather a regulatory concern, with both mental and physical well-being of pilots (and thus passengers) being the top priority for airlines and the entire industry.”

Instead of a lengthy conclusion, let’s consider several noteworthy examples. The Canadian aviation authorities have an aeromedically supervised treatment protocol that allows a small number of pilots to fly “with or as co-pilots” whilst undergoing antidepressant treatment and therapy. In the meantime, from January 1993 to June 2004 the Australian Civil Aviation Safety Authority (ACASA) allowed nearly 500 pilots and air traffic controllers to return to duty while their depression was under control with SSRIs. Guess what? All of them (apart from those in retirement) are still flying planes today… and landing them safely.

What does that mean? Mainly, that a combination of awareness, support and advocacy can help save lives. The airline industry needs to create an open environment where pilots always feel comfortable in admitting whatever issue they may have.

Therapists or pilots – why aircrew is left to evaluate their own mind?

Despite a number of widely discussed tragedies, 2014 actually set a new record for the fewest number of commercial aviation accidents since the start of the airline age, with just 21 recorded. That’s down from 29 in 2013, 23 in 2012 and 36 in 2011. Nevertheless, the recent tragic events casted a shadow on some of the aviation safety related procedures, namely those concerning pilot mental health evaluation. It appears that even though hundreds of lives are in the hands of an aircraft pilot daily, it is pilots themselves that are responsible for assessing their own mental health.

“During the primary training, pilots are subject to thorough examination. However, the main focus usually remains on physical, not mental issues. Moreover, even though airlinesperform thorough background checks and seek reference letters, all of that is done only in the beginning of pilot’s career. Later on, yearly checks, containing couple of tick-boxes regarding mental illness is all that’s done to evaluate overall capability of an aircraft pilot, leaving him the sole authority to decide whether his mind is set for the job,” comments Skaiste Knyzaite, CEO of AviationCV.com.

“Needless to say, keeping in mind that one of four people around the globe are affected by mental or neurological disorder according to World Health Organization, such an attitude rightfully becomes the reason for public concern.”mentioned among the most respectable and trusted professions, all eyes quickly turn to the person manning the aircraft in case of an accident. Not surprisingly, in order to ensure the utmost safety of the most popular way of travelling the world, airline pilots have to undergo a highly specific and extremely detailed training, which sometimes can exceed to years of learning and testing. Outstandingly, however, even in the line with FAA and EASA regulation, pilots around the globe are left on their own when it comes to monitoring something as important as their mental health.

Although most of regional CAA’s are reviewing their relevant procedures in the light of recent tragic events, most of them state that the current practice of assessing mental health is sufficient. Moreover, they claim that no matter the changes, it is impossible to ensure that accidents caused by pilot’s mental stability are eliminated altogether.

In addition to that, even with tightening of the screening process, there is no potential way to eliminate pilot dishonesty. In fact, according to the rules of the FAA, pilots can be fined up to $250 000 if they try to falsify information or lie about their health. Despite that, clearly understanding that recognition of mental illness would definitely mean hurting ones career, it is not surprising many would be inclined to mention nothing that could raise suspicions.

“It is clear that strict regulations are not the answer. In the U.S. alone there are around 600 000 of licensed pilots, and conducting thorough personality checks for American pilots alone would consume 3.6 million hours and $1.8 billion at the midpoint of the price range. Keeping that in mind, airlines worldwide should instead opt to revise their HR strategies in terms of training, evaluation and recruitment process as a whole in order to minimize any possible loopholes in the system,” concludes Skaiste Knyzaite, CEO of AviationCV.com.

Bombardier announces order for specialized air-ambulance aircraft

Bombardier announced today that it has signed a firm purchase agreement with Swiss Air-Ambulance Rega (“Rega”) for three Bombardier Challenger 650 aircraft. The transaction is valued at approximately $130 million US, based on 2015 list prices and includes various aircraft modifications, such as the installation of a medical evacuation interior. Deliveries of the modified Challenger 650 aircraft are scheduled for 2018.

A loyal Bombardier Challenger aircraft customer, Rega is the leading Swiss air-ambulance provider. As a privately funded foundation, its mission is to carry out air-rescue operations in Switzerland and to repatriate patients from abroad. As one of the world's pioneers in aeromedical evacuation, Rega has a long tradition in dealing with medical emergencies around the world. Their current fleet of three Challenger 604 aircraft are used exclusively for ambulance flights and are outfitted with intensive-care units.

“Bombardier has enjoyed an excellent working relationship with Rega since 1982 when the company purchased its first Challenger aircraft and again in 2002 with the addition of the Challenger 604 aircraft to its fleet,” said Stéphane Villeneuve, Vice-President, Specialized Aircraft, Bombardier. “We are very proud of the confidence that Rega continues to place in Bombardier, and we look forward to many more years of collaboration.”

“A preferred medical evacuation platform, Challenger aircraft have a long-standing history of air-ambulance operations. With its enhanced performance from short runways and proven reliability and track record, we are convinced the next-generation Challenger 650 aircraft is the definitive choice to carry out Rega’s extremely critical air-ambulance missions,” added Mr. Villeneuve.

“We are pleased with the acquisition of an additional three Bombardier Challenger aircraft,” said Ernst Kohler, CEO and Chairman of the Management Board of Rega. “The aircraft meets our requirements perfectly and will again serve thousands of patients worldwide, as did its predecessors.”  Rega organizes and executes medical evacuations and medically escorted repatriations from anywhere in the world. “Our medical teams of experienced doctors and intensive-care nurses, as well as our pilots, appreciate the generous on-board conditions and the well-proven technology. We are pleased to rely on the Challenger platform to perform our life-saving missions,” added Mr. Kohler.